After Lok Sabha poll high, Shiv Sena (UBT) stumbles in assembly ‘tsunami’

MUMBAI: Victorious in 20 of the 94 assembly contituencies it contested, the Shiv Sena (UBT) was left with a score card that was far worse than the performance of the undivided Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray 's leadership in past elections, both in terms of the number of seats won and the strike rate.

"It seems as if a tsunami has hit rather than a wave. The question is whether the general public agrees with this or not," Uddhav Thackeray said, describing the results as unprecedented and unexpected.

Though it won only a little more than a third of the number of seats that CM Eknath Shinde 's Shiv Sena won, a small consolation was that the Shiv Sena (UBT) went into the election with 15 MLAs and increased the tally by five, making it the single-largest party in the MVA in the assembly. Winning the prestige seats of Mahim, Worli and Bandra East also gave the party some reason to cheer.

Aaditya Thackeray, son of Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, and his cousin, Varun Sardesai, gave the party victories in Worli and Bandra East, respectively.

After winning nine seats in the Lok Sabha election under its new symbol ‘mashaal' (flaming torch), the crushing defeat now was more than a setback for Uddhav Thackeray.

Now salvaging his party ahead of the BMC election will be a major task for Uddhav Thackeray. If the party fails to impress in the BMC election, which may be held early next year, it may turn out to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for the party.

Besides the city, the party received a drubbing even in its other bastion, the Konkan, with Bhaskar Jadhav as its lone winning MLA in the region.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 22 seats and won only 10 in the city, compared to the 14 it bagged in the 2019 assembly election. It also lost the Andheri East seat that it won in a bye-election in 2022.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) attempt to offset the Marathi votes it lost to CM Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, MNS and BJP with minority votes worked only to a certain extent, giving it wins in only some select seats. The party faced a wipeout in Shinde's stronghold, Thane, and the rest of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region too, which was once a bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena.

Political observers said the newly elected MLAs of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and even its party cadres might jump ship, leaving Uddhav Thackeray with just a handful of loyalists.

The results are proof that Shinde's Shiv Sena was the real Shiv Sena in the minds of voters and that the CM still has the backing of not just MLAs and MPs but also loyal voters from the time of the undivided Shiv Sena.

Analysts said it would be an almost impossible task for the Shiv Sena (UBT) to bounce back from here, given the Mahayuti's brute majority in the state.



Among the 40 undivided Shiv Sena MLAs who sided with Shinde in 2022, only a handful lost in this election, an indication that a sympathy wave did not exist. Uddhav Thackeray's narrative of traitors, betrayal and backstabbing has not clicked with voters, who chose the ‘bow and arrow' over the ‘mashaal'.

Uddhav Thackeray may now have to take a back seat in the MVA too. In the scenario that the MVA itself disintegrates, the Shiv Sena (UBT) will be further weakened without any support from the Congress. Uddhav will struggle to keep his party together, and with no SC order in his favour on the MLAs' disqualification and the party name and symbol, it will be tough sailing for Uddhav and his Sena (UBT).