Ex-judge from mainland China set to take Macao's top job. What's at stake for casino hub?

Some 400 pro-establishment electors are set to approve the sole candidate for Macao's chief executive job on Sunday, making him the Chinese casino hub's first leader born in mainland China. It's a break from the longtime practice of choosing locally-born leaders, usually from prominent business families, for the former Portuguese colony.

Nearly the entire election committee - 386 of 400 members - have nominated Sam Hou Fai, the territory's longtime chief judge, for the Oct. 13 vote.

Local political observers say many Macao residents appear indifferent to Sam's origins. Some see elections as having little to do with them, since the vast majority of the territory's 687,000 people cannot vote. Still, it remains to be seen whether the former judge can diversify the gaming-reliant economy, a key goal highlighted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Here's what you need to know:

Who is Sam Hou Fai?
Sam, 62, was born in neighboring Guangdong province in 1962. He graduated from the prestigious law school of Peking University in Beijing. He also studied the Portuguese language, culture and law at the University of Coimbra in Portugal, and once practiced law in mainland China.

Sam moved to Macao in the 1980s. While his official resume does not give a reason, former pro-democracy lawmaker Au Kam San said Sam was an official sent by China to Macao to research the city's law. Sam took judicial courses in the then-colony and later became a judge.

When Macao returned to China's rule in 1999, Sam was appointed the city's top judge, a role he served in for nearly 25 years before resigning in August to prepare for the election.

As chief judge, Sam dealt with a number of politically sensitive cases, including rejecting an appeal filed by Au to a police ban on a vigil commemorating China's bloody 1989 military crackdown on the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests. His court also upheld a decision to bar pro-democracy figures from running in the 2021 legislative elections.

Moves to curtail dissent in Macao echoed Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong following huge anti-government protests in 2019. In recent years, the former British colony's vigil to remember the victims in 1989 has vanished, and an electoral overhaul for the legislature was passed in 2021 that aimed to ensure "patriots" would administer the city.

Au said Sam had maintained a low profile during his years on the court.

Unlike his predecessors who were active in politics before running for chief executive, he said, "Sam Ho Fai is a stranger in society."

What does having a mainland-born former judge as leader mean for Macao?

Observers said Sam was not a widely-tipped candidate to be the next city leader when incumbent leader Ho Iat Seng announced he would not seek a second term.

People would expect that the influence of the business sector may decrease and the policy agenda laid out by Beijing will be the government's priority, said Ieong Meng U, a professor at the government and public administration of the University of Macao.

Ieong said that Sam's mainland origins won't be an issue.

The key is whether Sam listens to the public's views, Ieong said, as his predecessor was under fire for not taking care of local people. Critics have blamed Ho for neglecting the interest of local workers and livelihood issues, and raised questions about his own children sitting on influential committees.

Can Sam fulfil the goal of diversifying Macao's economy?

Macao is the only place in China where casino gambling is legal, and its gaming industry has dominated the economy for decades.

China's latest five-year plan calls for Macao to develop as a tourism and leisure center and to play a larger role as a bridge for trade between China and Portuguese-speaking countries.

Last month, Sam said that diversification is a key area he must address and that the city has learned a lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic. During that period, the city's tourism and gaming industries suffered a big slump.

He's promised to accelerate the current government's plan to boost the tourism and leisure industry and other sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, finance, and exhibition and commerce.

Ieong predicted the city would still be highly reliant on the gaming industry for at least the next five to 10 years, though Sam's administration could invest more in diversification.

Au said attracting investment is important for the economy, but it could be hard to create an attractive business environment as Beijing will expect the government to prioritize national security. A number of international companies have also left or moved some roles outside Hong Kong since Beijing imposed a national security law to quell the 2019 protests.

"Sometimes, there are many constraints that may not allow him to achieve that," he said.

What do Macao's residents expect from him?
The nomination of the former judge has some residents hoping that the next Chief Executive will be more accountable, instead of putting business people's interests first in a city where critics often accuse officials of colluding with commercial players.

Leung Wun Mei, owner of a dried seafood shop, said she hopes Sam will be more willing to listen to the public's views and do more to improve the local economy. Leung, 68, said smaller businesses like hers have suffered because residents tended to spend money in the neighbouring mainland city of Zhuhai, where shopping is cheaper and offers a wider selection.

Retailer Jerry Ho, 25, hoped Sam would not favor business interests over other priorities and will boost domestic consumption.

"But I don't have high expectations because he wasn't chosen by us. He was predetermined," he said. "I just hope he'll be better than his predecessor. That alone would be quite comforting."