Wrong calls may have shown way out to most exit polls

NEW DELHI: The trend of forecasting poll results has witnessed a significant shift, as evident in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where the number of exit polls conducted for the assembly elections has notably decreased.

This phenomenon is being attributed to various factors, primarily the repeated inaccuracies of these polls in predicting election outcomes in both state and national elections in recent times.

For Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the number of dedicated and exclusive exit polls, an integral practice previously, became a rarity with most TV channels relying on 'poll of polls' based on forecasts made by lesser known survey agencies and social media platforms.

Exit polls, which aim to provide an early indication of election results by surveying voters right after they cast their ballots, have long been a staple of election coverage in the country. They offer a peek into voter sentiment and have often shaped media narratives and public expectations. However, the credibility of these polls has come under scrutiny due to their inconsistent track record.

Historically, exit polls enjoyed a certain degree of trust, especially after notable successes like the 1998 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, their credibility took a hit with significant misses in subsequent elections. The 2004 LS elections, where exit polls predicted a BJP victory only for the Congress-led coalition to win, marked a turning point. This trend of inaccuracy continued, with varying degrees of misprediction in state elections as well.

In Maharashtra, assembly elections have always been a battleground for major political forces, leading to numerous exit polls being commissioned. Yet, the results over the years have often diverged from what was predicted, leading to scepticism.

The 2019 assembly elections in Maharashtra, for instance, saw mixed results for exit polls, with some agencies closely predicting the outcome and others missing the mark significantly. The 2024 LS polls further highlighted this issue, where BJP-led alliance ended up with fewer seats than expected while exit polls suggested a landslide.

Jharkhand's political scenario, characterised by its regional parties and coalition politics, has been a challenging field for exit polls. State's elections have often seen predictions fail to capture the intricate local dynamics or the influence of tribal politics.