Exit polls give NDA edge in Maharashtra & Jharkhand, but will results match?

After the debacle for Indian pollsters in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year and the recently finished Haryana elections, most TV channels refrained from commissioning exit polls for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections . That apart, exit polls released Wednesday evening after close of polling in Maharashtra and the second phase in Jharkhand hinted at an advantage for NDA in both states. Counting of votes for both states will take place on Nov 23.

Also read: Some exit polls say there's room for rebels to play a role in Maharashtra elections

The list of polls compiled by TOI from news media and posts on X from their official handles showed that six of the 10 exit polls in Maharashtra gave a clear advantage to the NDA (Mahayuti), one predicted a near-equal show while the remaining three gave the opposition INDIA bloc ( Maha Vikas Aghadi ) the edge.

In Jharkhand, three of the seven polls gave a clear edge to opposition NDA in the 81-member House, one indicated a close fight, and two gave INDIA majority. One poll gave neither alliance a majority.


Among the polls in Maharashtra that put NDA ahead, the maximum number of seats for the combine in the 288-member assembly varied by around 40 seats - from 157 as predicted by P-Marq to 195 by Peoples Pulse. 'Poll Diary', that predicted a maximum of 186 seats for NDA, kept the range at 122-86 - a margin of 64 seats. The same pollster predicted 69-121 seats for INDIA bloc, again a margin of 53 seats.

Polls that gave an edge to NDA suggest most seats will be divided between the two alliances, with other parties reduced to single-digit tallies.

Polls that predicted either an equal battle or gave the advantage to INDIA gave a higher number of seats to other parties. Dainik Bhaskar, Electoral Edge and SAS predicted an advantage to INDIA, with Electoral Edge giving the fewest seats to NDA, at 118.

In Jharkhand too, most exit polls predict an advantage for NDA. Three of the seven polls have given a clear edge to the saffron combine while Times Now- JVC indicates NDA might have an advantage but the INDIA alliance is very close to the majority mark of 41 seats.

Also read: Most project BJP win; 1 predicts clean sweep to Hemant Soren in Jharkhand assembly elections

Dainik Bhaskar has not given clear majority to either alliance, indicating a neck-and-neck contest. Two pollsters have given a majority to the INDIA alliance.